The June 2025 “Twelve-Day War” between Iran and Israel has not only reshaped regional geopolitics but is also reverberating deeply inside Iran. The Islamic Republic is facing a new set of challenges and opportunities as it seeks to project strength abroad while maintaining control at home. At the same time, Iranian society is undergoing profound change: younger generations are demanding greater freedoms, women continue to play a pivotal role in protest movements, and economic hardship is fueling both frustration and resilience across different social strata.

This GIGA Forum ONLINE will examine how the war has affected the Islamic Republic’s legitimacy and foreign policy calculus, and what this means for the balance of power among regime factions, state institutions, and political and military elites. It will also highlight the lived realities of ordinary Iranians, exploring how repression, economic pressures, and new forms of solidarity are reshaping the country’s social fabric.

The discussion will consider different scenarios for the future of the Islamic Republic: can the ruling elite adapt to shifting domestic and regional dynamics, or are we witnessing the first signs of more fundamental change?

Panelists:

Sara Kermanian is a PhD candidate and doctoral tutor in the Department of International Relations at the University of Sussex.

Dr. Eskandar Sadeghi-Boroujerdi is a Senior Lecturer in the History of the Middle East at the University of York.

Diba Mirzaei is a Doctoral Researcher at the GIGA Institute for Middle East Studies and currently a Zahedi Fellow with the Iranian Studies Program at Stanford University.

Moderator:

Hamid Talebian is a Doctoral Researcher at the GIGA Institute for Middle East Studies and University of Hamburg.